Sometimes, Young Aces Don't Pan Out

This baseball season really has been the year of the rookie. It seems like half the teams in the league are being led by or at least helped substantially by a rookie. The Twins' Liriano, Boston's Papelbon, the Brewers' Fielder, etc. Check out Jeff Passan's column today on all of the rookies who are making waves across the league.

This year, despite solid hitters like Stephen Drew, Dan Uggla, and Ryan Zimmerman, the rookie crop is undeniably headed by some terrific starting pitchers. Lirano, the Angels' Jered Weaver, and the Tigers' Justin Verlander have the lowest ERAs in the AL, while the Marlins' Josh Johnson has the lowest ERA in the NL.

Many of the players Passan lists in his articles will undoubtedly go on to have very good careers, but since the most attention this year has focused on the rookie starters, it is there I want to sound a cautionary note. How many times have we seen a great rookie pitcher struggle the next year? Sometimes it's just a sophomore slump, but other times their careers never shine again. The reasons for this are varied, but usually it's injury (the Twins better be careful Liriano doesn't become the next Mark Prior) or hitters "figure out" the pitcher and he isn't able to adapt.

Remember last year's darling Zach Duke? He posted a microscopic 1.81 ERA in 14 starts for the Pirates. This season he's been wildly inconsistent, racking up a 5.09 ERA while walking more batters, striking out less, and being hit .309 off of (compared to .253 last year). Then there was Felix Hernandez over in the AL. He put up a 2.67 ERA for the Mariners in 12 starts while being even more electric than Duke: 77 Ks in 84 innings, a 1.00 WHIP, and holding batters to only a .203 average. In 2006, control has been an issue, especially after a terrible April and May, and he's only 10-10 with a 4.50 ERA and 1.37 WHIP on the year.

A season earlier, Bobby Madritsch had a 3.27 ERA in 15 games (11 starts) for the Mariners, and Luke Hudson had a 2.42 ERA in 9 starts for the Reds. Madritsch has pitched in exactly one game since then, and Hudson (now with the Royals) has had an ERA north of 6 the past two years.

What's the point of all this? Well, to use a fantasy analogy, I'm not telling you to not have Joe Saunders on your team. (He's on mine, after all.) However, for every Johan Santana you could get a Kazuhisa Ishii. The Kaz was electric before the All-Star break in '03, going 8-3 with a 2.94 ERA and 102 strikeouts in 104 innings. He's out of the league now.

Good young pitching is the lifeblood of any successful team. Everyone wants to develop the next Brandon Webb, John Lackey, or Scott Kazmir. Unfortunately, sometimes that guy turns out to be Oliver Perez. Check this post a year from now and see if we still remember all of this season's big names.